Three things are certain in life: death, taxes and Labour winning in Wales.
Three things are certain in life: death, taxes and Labour winning in Wales. Since the inception of the Senedd in 1999, Welsh Labour has been an election winning machine, being the largest party after every election and the only party to hold the post of First Minister. In fact, Wales has only ever had 6 first ministers since the job's creation; a signifier of how dominant Welsh Labour has been, and the largest reason why Wales is often forgotten about in discussions surrounding devolution. In Scotland, the nationalist SNP have governed since 2007, shining a spotlight on the independence movement which resulted in the independence referendum in 2014. In Northern Ireland, the constant stalemate and negotiations between the unionist DUP and republican Sinn Fein have kept them in the spotlight, and that is without mentioning the DUP's role in propping up Theresa May's minority government in 2017.
Wales has kept quiet, never any competition, never any noise, but in May, that is all about to change. After 27 years, Welsh Labour is by all accounts set to lose the next election, and it is predicted to be a slaughter. The latest poll by the Wales Governance Centre, ITV and YouGov places them at just 10% with only 8 seats, down from 30 in the last election. This places them behind even the Greens, projected for 10 seats, who currently have no representation in the Senedd. This is backed by polling averages that also see Labour competing with the Greens, who have had a recent surge following the online phenomenon that is Zack Polanski, and the Conservative Party who have been in continuous decline since 2024 and dwindle around the 10% mark.
With the traditional parties set to miss out, the next election has become a competition between two distinct types of nationalism. As they have nationally, Reform UK has surged in popularity in Wales, even leading some polls after only achieving 1.6% of the vote last election. The issue with Reform in Wales is that it's difficult to pin down who they are and what they believe. The party has no Welsh leader and has announced no candidates, just 5 months out from the election. This has led many to question whether Reform just represents an English Nationalist party operating in Wales, particularly because their only MS (Member of the Senedd), Tory defector Laura Anne Jones, seems to question the existence of the Senedd itself. What they do promote is anti-status quo and anti-migrant messaging, placing blame at the doorstep of Welsh Labour and painting Plaid Cymru as their partners in crime. It is through this strategy that they have gained momentum, hitting out at the 20mph speed limits and the Welsh nation of sanctuary policy which supports refugees and asylum seekers.
Through Labour's bleeding Plaid Cymru has gained, and while Welsh Labour has had its problems, it is safe to say that the motivations for many on the left in Wales are a product of Keir Starmer's government in Westminster. As Starmer has taken the UK Labour Party to the centre, Plaid Cymru has offered a left-wing voice critiquing the government's choices on welfare spending and taxation as well as its treatment of Wales. Plaid have taken the guns to the Welsh Labour government, stating that they have not stood up for Welsh interests, particularly in the case of HS2 being designated an England and Wales project, despite it never crossing the border, as well as criticising them for not standing up to the national party on the issue of immigration. It is here where Plaid’s other agenda becomes apparent. Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has stated that if they were to win the election in May, they would use it as an opportunity to make the case for an independent Wales.
What is clear is that Welsh Labour have little way back; after 27 years the fatigue of government has well and truly hit. Stuck in the no man's land of trying to be more left wing than Keir Starmer, without starting a civil war, has left the party exposed on all flanks. This has only been compounded by unpopular policies such as the 20mph speed limit. Now struggling to define itself and convince voters that they should remain in government, Welsh Labour are leaning on its experience governing without realising it is that exact reason people are looking for alternatives. Instead, Plaid is offering a left wing alternative. However, they hold baggage by being in a confidence agreement with Labour up until 2024 and may frighten potential voters away with their independence rhetoric. Reform, whilst disrupters are yet to define themselves away from Nigel Farage, must contend with people casting their vote against rather than for them.
In many ways we have already seen what is about to play out in May. The Caerphilly by-election in October 2025 saw Labour defend a seat they had never lost and proceed to come third with just 11% of the vote. Eventually, Plaid came out on top and now Labour must contend with the narrative that only Plaid can beat Reform and lose even more votes as a result of tactical voting. Meanwhile, Reform must worry about becoming the bogeyman, with voters less concerned with who wins, rather, just making sure they lose. But no matter what happens in the next 5 months, we are set for the most interesting election in Welsh history, and it may well define Welsh politics for the decade to come.